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Project Erebus // AI Fusion System

See what
runs dark

Canada's own AI fusion system for maritime domain awareness. Detection is solved; deciding what matters is not. Erebus sits above the sensors, ranks the contacts that need a decision, explains each call against its evidence, and points the low-cost drone sent to verify. Built to run on your own infrastructure.

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The problem // an unwatched ocean

of the world's ships can be running dark at any given moment.

Canada owns the longest coastline on earth and an Arctic that is opening fast, watched by a handful of satellites and ships. Any vessel can switch off its AIS and vanish, and that is how sanctions get evaded, fish get stolen, and contested waters get tested. Global Fishing Watch and Windward put 5 to 10 percent of global traffic dark at any time. Peer-reviewed analysis (Nicoll et al., Maritime Transport Research, January 2025; Transport Canada and University of Ottawa) measured that the main free Arctic AIS dataset caught only 11 percent of Canadian Arctic vessels in 2013 and 65 percent by 2020, structurally biased to Norway and Iceland where terrestrial receivers exist.

The gap, from orbit.The warm dots are ships broadcasting their position. The dark water between them is everything we cannot see.
How it all comes together

One loop, end to end.

Erebus closes a single loop: watch wide from space, decide with a sovereign AI brain, verify with low-cost drones.

The challenge asks for an AI that fuses at least two kinds of data. Erebus fuses three, satellite imagery, RF, and telemetry, by place and time. Detection is largely solved and fielded; what the sensors leave to human analysts is the deciding. Erebus is that layer, above the sensors, not another one. Demonstrated end-to-end on operational data; the work being funded is Arctic-specific calibration so it runs the same way over the Northwest Passage.

1

Watch

See every hull

Detects every ship in satellite radar and checks each one against AIS. The contacts with no matching signal are the vessels that went dark to disappear.

2

Decide

Rank it, explain it, calibrate it

The AI brain ranks which contacts matter, reasons why a vessel went dark, cites the evidence, and calibrates confidence against how complete coverage is there, so a reception gap is not mistaken for a dark vessel. The operator gets a call they can act on and defend.

3

Verify

Send an attritable drone

Turns the flag into exact coordinates and a forecast position, then cues a low-cost autonomous drone to confirm, keeping scarce crewed aircraft for real escalation.

The signals it catches

Five ways a ship hides.

Hiding is rarely one trick. Erebus is built around the deceptive-shipping playbook that sanctions evaders, illegal fishers, and grey-zone actors actually use.

Demonstrated

Went dark

AIS switched off in open water, with no port call or coverage gap to explain it.

Demonstrated

Changed identity

Name, MMSI, or flag swapped while the permanent IMO stays the same. The classic shadow-fleet move.

Demonstrated

Spoofed position

Peer-reviewed analysis (Nicoll et al. 2025) measured 2.8 percent of Arctic AIS tracklines spoofed, with structured Kara Sea star patterns and Arctic-Circle-to-Norway lines consistent with sanctions-evasion routing. Erebus detects the geometry.

Roadmap

Dark rendezvous

Two vessels meeting and loitering offshore, the signature of an illicit ship-to-ship transfer.

Demonstrated

First-seen contact

A radar contact with no matching AIS. Unknown, worth a closer look. Distinguishing a never-cooperative hull from a transient gap is the longitudinal memory the funded build adds.

Inside the brain // five models, one decision

An ensemble, not a detector.

Five models feed one AI brain. They work together, then an LLM-based decision layer turns their signals into a documented assessment that shows the supporting evidence and how certain the system is.

A
Detector

finds ships in radar (91%)

B
Type

types a vessel from radar alone (in build)

C
Behavior

flags dark/identity, reasons why

D
Trajectory

predicts the intercept point

E
Risk brain

fuses all into one priority

The Erebus brain orchestrating multiple models on the live dashboard
Live: more than a detector.Asked where the top contact is heading, the brain calls its own tools, get_vessel_track, forecast_trajectory, geography_near, and projects the track to an intercept point. A detector finds a hull; the ensemble reasons about where it goes and why.
The LLM-based decision layer

Every call comes with its reasons.

  • Grounded, not guessedReasons over a maritime-intel knowledge base, so answers are tied to real reference, not a model's hunch.
  • Cited evidenceEach finding points back to the data behind it: a coordinate, a coverage map, an identity record.
  • Confidence attachedEvery verdict carries a confidence, so an operator knows what to trust and what to verify.
  • Audit trailThe full chain is logged and defensible, for a watch officer, a commander, or a court.
  • Model-agnostic and sovereignThe language model is swappable, a Canadian open model. The on-prem workstation runs Cohere Command A (111B); full-scale Command A+ (Apache 2.0) is the customer-hardware deployment target. Classified data never leaves the building.
  • The model is the judge, not the courtA general model cannot find a ship in radar, fuse three sensors, or know the world's fishing grounds and naval bases. The detection, fusion, grounding, and the loop to action are the system, and that is what we own. The same brain is built to direct the low-cost drones it cues.
Live brain output · LA scene
ASSESSMENT

· STARSHIP EXPRESS went dark 65 minutes ago after a track showed it heading toward Avalon, Santa Catalina Island (ferry port), 10 km away on its heading [detector + AIS, trajectory model, geo].

· Last known speed and heading, if maintained, would place it near the island by now, suggesting routine arrival or AIS coverage shadow [trajectory model, coverage].

· No anomalous behavior detected in its prior track [detector + AIS].

ACTION

→ No immediate action required · Monitor for re-emergence in AIS coverage.

Real output · Cohere command-r tools + Command A synthesis

Erebus is a proprietary system. It orchestrates a swappable language model, a sovereign Canadian open model (Cohere Command A+, Apache 2.0) self-hostable on-premise for classified use; the engine, models, grounding, and calibration are Hubflow IP.

Demonstrated on real data

Not slides. Working software.

Built and run on real, time-stamped satellite and AIS data, the same day, the same minute. These outputs come from the working system.

The Erebus dashboard running live
The live system.The Erebus operating picture: satellite radar cross-checked against AIS, dark contacts flagged in red, the brain console open. A real screen, not a mockup.
91%
Detection

ships in satellite radar (validation mAP50 0.91), on held-out data

28 / 18
Real scene

vessels confirmed against AIS; fixed structures correctly set aside (LA / Long Beach, 28 Dec 2024)

9.25 hrs
Caught dark

AMIS WISDOM II silent underway, 305 km covered (17.8 kt avg, up from 11.7 kt before), 23 vessels reporting nearby; plus identity-change resolved by IMO

0
Arctic AIS gap

ships the open AIS feed showed over the Northwest Passage, measured first-hand

50 → <5
Arctic baseline

uncalibrated detector produces ~50 false positives per scene window on Arctic ice (snow ridges, ice crevasses mimic ship returns); M2 funded work targets <5

Radar x AIS, on real data
Green: confirmed ships. Amber: fixed structures, set aside. Red: a vessel with no AIS.
Why did it go dark?
Context-aware triage. Left: benign, entering port. Right: suspicious, open covered water, no benign reason.
One ranked picture
Every contact fused into a single priority list, highest-risk first, so the watch knows where to look.

By rejecting fixed structures before raising a cue and treating missing AIS as a candidate to verify, Erebus reduces false alerts versus a naive radar-minus-AIS approach, so scarce patrol hours go to genuinely suspicious contacts.

Hubflow has delivered for government before: a domain-specialized translation engine a Canadian federal agency evaluated at roughly twice a general-purpose baseline.

The milestone // the AI made the call itself

One brain. Opposite calls.

An operator asks in plain language; the brain works the scene itself, grounds and cites every claim, calibrates against coverage, and cues a drone. It is never told which contact matters; it determines that from the evidence, the call a trained analyst would make, in seconds, with its reasoning recorded. The proof that it judges rather than alarms: it reads two real scenes in opposite directions.

Benign, read down
A vessel that dropped AIS heading into a harbour. The brain checks the geography itself, finds the port on the heading, and calls it a routine arrival, low priority, because losing the signal at a berth is expected.
Suspicious, escalated
Handed raw telemetry, the brain reached this itself: a tanker named in sanctions-evasion reporting, loitering off Curacao at a known hub for ship-to-ship transfers of Venezuelan oil, not transiting. It was never told the vessel was suspicious. It raised it to verify, on real Global Fishing Watch data.

The same brain carries to the Arctic: over the Northwest Passage, where the open AIS feed shows nothing, it treats a radar contact with no AIS in Canada's sovereign Lancaster Sound as a candidate unauthorized transit to verify, the Arctic case this challenge targets.

Pattern of life // the funded build adds

It learns your water.

Most contacts are routine. The funded build adds vessel and regional memory so an operator can pre-clear the ships that belong and pre-flag the ones that do not. One piece, identity tracking across renames by permanent IMO, is already demonstrated; the rest is what Component 1a builds on top of it.

Allowlist // pre-cleared

Funded build. Known-good vessels recognised and set aside before they ever raise an alert, on top of the demonstrated identity-by-IMO and coverage-calibration steps.

  • Scheduled ferries on a fixed route
  • Your own fleet and partner vessels
  • Licensed fishers in their grounds (co-developed with Fisheries and Oceans Canada and Indigenous communities)
  • Friendly-force traffic via the telemetry layer
Watchlist // pre-flagged

Funded build. Known-bad vessels auto-escalated the moment they appear, tracked by permanent IMO (demonstrated) so a rename will not shake them. The lists and feed integrations are the work this component delivers.

  • Sanctioned and shadow-fleet tankers (live sanctions and registry fusion)
  • Repeat AIS-off offenders (longitudinal memory)
  • Vessels of interest from intel feeds
  • Hulls flagged by allied partners
The whole point // close the loop

Watch wide from space.
Verify with attritable drones.

A satellite can see a dark ship but it cannot go look. A crewed patrol can look but cannot be everywhere. Erebus joins the two: it finds the contact, decides it is worth a look, and produces a precise tasking for a low-cost drone to verify.

One closed loop.Satellite detects, the brain decides, a drone is cued to the vessel. Wide-area watch and close-in proof, working as one system.
Canada is already funding sovereign drones. What is missing is the brain to point them. Erebus is that brain, built and owned in Canada. The airframe and the intelligence both made at home, so the decision to act on a contact never leaves the country.
Why Erebus

Built in Canada. Built to be trusted.

Canadian-owned and controlled

Canadian-built and Canadian-owned, on a Canadian open model (Cohere Command A on-prem; Command A+ on customer hardware, Apache 2.0). The decision layer stays in Canada, not a foreign cloud or vendor. Estimated ~80 percent Canadian content across labour, equipment lease, cloud compute, and the MDA RADARSAT-2 archive line.

On-premise

Built to run on the customer's own infrastructure, so classified data never leaves it.

Explainable

Every output cites its evidence, carries a confidence, and leaves an audit trail an operator can defend.

Sensor-agnostic and jamming-resilient

Demonstrated on Sentinel-1 and AIS; commercial-Arctic stack adds Kpler S-AIS, Unseenlabs RF emitter geolocation, MDA RADARSAT-2 (Canadian SAR), IHS registry, plus free VIIRS DNB nightlight. Radar generates its own signal, so detection keeps working under active GPS jamming in Arctic exercise areas (Boulègue 2019, Chatham House).

Hubflow // Applied AI

Built to deploy.
Built to be trusted.

→ Talk to Hubflow